People, get ready. Unless there is a profound change in the rhetoric and policies of the Iranian government, war with Iran will come before the Bush administration leaves office. The only people who can stop this war from coming are the people of Iran, if they rise up and overthrow their president and his religious masters. Whether or not they’ll do that, who knows? But if the United States doesn’t attack Iran, Israel will, and if Israel does, it will be an ungodly mess. Israel’s air force is not large enough for it to successfully attack Iran without using nuclear weapons, and, anyway, Israel’s planes would have to fly through airspace controlled by the United States to make such an attack.While the American army is badly stretched by the war in the Middle East, and the Marine Corps is pretty heavily committed there, too, the American air force, including carrier-based aircraft (technically not a part of the air force, but functionally the same), is largely free to launch a devastating and sustained offensive against targets in Iran, including the Revolutionary Guards, the nuclear facilities, the political leadership, and various facets of Iranian infrastructure and other targets of opportunity. While it may be necessary to send in some ground forces, such as Special Ops, airborne and marines, and could result in the loss of several thousand American military personnel, don’t think the Bush administration won’t do it. They’re not running for re-election. A big question as to the timing of the attack is whether it comes before the November election or after it. If it looks like it will help McCain and other Republicans get elected, it will come before; if it looks like it might cause Republican losses, it will come after. So what’s it going to mean to you and me? The biggest impact will be economic. Gasoline could not only get expensive pretty quickly, shortages and rationing are not out of the question. And remember, when George Bush speaks of “our way of life,” what he means is that every facet of our economy is tied to oil. We’re not just talking about the fuel to make our cars and trucks and trains and planes go, but everything we have, how we grow our food, how we make the myriad components of all our gadgets, how our clothing is made—and never mind that so much of the stuff we buy is made overseas, it’s still manufactured in a seriously petroleum-based economy—the whole kit-and-caboodle is built on oil.In the longer run, it could mean a draft, it could mean a much larger war, it could mean the igniting of a conflagration that will make Sept. 11, 2001, look like just another normal day. So get ready.It's worded as though it were a "call to arms," but really is more depressing than martial. What'say?
