QUOTE (shoreke @ Jul 3 2008, 03:16 PM)


Don't blame the oil companies. Their profit margin is 8% on a gallon of gas. You need to blame:
1. Astronomical govt taxes on gasoline.
2. OPEC gangstas who doubled the price of oil at the well head in less that one year.
3. Environmentalists who lobby to stop the building of refineries & nuclear plants,
4. US govt restrictions on oil shale and coal mining, drilling off shore and in Alaska.
5. Wall Street oil futures speculators who bid up the price of oil still in the ground.
6. Spectacular growth of Chinese and Indian economies that greatly increased demand for oil.
7. Lack of US govt commitment to develop alternative energy resources such as wind, solar and hydroelectric power.
Note: an 8 oz Starbucks latte works out to about $80 per gallon. Millions of Americans gladly pay that price yet complain about $4 gas.Below are my notes of a House hearing on causes of and remedies for the current distorted oil prices.
HOUSE ENERGY AND COMMERCE SUBCOMMITTEE HEARING, JUNE 23,2008
The price of oil, and also therefore the price of gasoline at the pump, could be reduced by 40% to 50% within 30 to 60 days if Congress would act immediately to restore the regulations on oil futures trading which were in effect from 1936 to 2000.
That was the unanimous testimony of the panel of oil industry analysts and consultants before the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee, chaired by John Dingell, of Michigan, on June 23, 2008.
The conclusion of all of the panel members was that the market price of oil, absent the distortion caused by the bubble of speculation in the oil futures market, would be in the $50 to $65 per barrel range, and that the excess speculation is attributable to a relaxation of its rules by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission beginning in 2000.
The steps recommended by the panel to be taken to bring immediate first aid relief to the U.S. economy are:
1. Re-establish position limits on investors in “paper barrels”; that is, speculators who have no need to ever take delivery of the oil purchased in their futures contracts, and who are unable to take delivery. This would limit the amount speculators could invest in oil futures, particularly through commodity index fund investing, which is purely speculative.
2. Increase the margin requirements for investing in oil futures contracts, with higher requirements for those who are not true hedgers in the market to protect the cost of the oil they will need in the future, i.e., speculators; and lower margins for true hedgers who actually take delivery and use the oil they contract to buy.
3. Require transparency, by requiring investors to disclose publicly their oil futures holdings.
The panel agreed that there are two problems facing the U.S. regarding oil prices: (i) the acute economic distress caused by the present unsustainably high prices for oil caused by excess speculation, and (ii) the structural problems involved in the need for the U.S. to decrease demand and to increase domestic supply.
Michael Masters, of Masters Capital Management, used the analogy of a grossly obese patient, who needs diet, exercise and other long-term treatment, but who has had a heart attack. The heart attack must be treated immediately to save the patient. The long term matters can then be addressed. Similarly, he stated, the steps outlined above need to be immediately implemented to save the U.S. economy from further damage caused by current oil prices.
Some members of the subcommittee asked questions expressing concern that pension fund investors in oil futures might be turned upside down by a sudden drop in the value of their oil futures holdings. Mr. Masters, responded, and other panel members agreed, that oil futures make up only 1% of the portfolios of these funds, and that they are heavily invested in stocks, the value of which is being rapidly deflated by the current oil price crisis. The rapid drop in the cost of oil, and of gasoline at the pump, would reverse the stock losses, and more than off-set any losses in their oil futures speculation. The country would benefit by putting a stop to the destruction now occurring in the airlines, auto industry, trucking industry, and others, and the damage being done to American families by present oil prices.
The panelists, in addition to Mr. Masters, were Edward Krapels, Senior Director, Energy Security Analysts, Inc.; Roger Diwan, partner and head of Financial Advisory at PSC Energy Consultants; and Fadel Gheit, Oppenheimer & Co., Senior Oil Analyst and Manager.
The unanimous recommendation of the panel members was that the position limits, margin increase, and disclosure requirements regarding oil futures holdings be implemented immediately, without phase-in. While none wanted to make predictions, all agreed that the world oil price would drop 40% to 60% within 30 to 60 days after re-regulation, and probably less, and that an immediate drop in the retail price of gasoline would occur.
Issues were raised of whether the “free market” must be allowed to run its course, however destructive to the public good. The panelists disagreed with this free market argument. The panelists pointed out that the oil market is not free. The supply is controlled by the producing nations. The demand, in China and the Mid-East where the demand increase is coming from, is artificially supported by government subsidies. Mr. Gheit pointed out that the difference between gasoline prices in the U.S. and the higher prices in Europe is the additional taxes imposed in Europe; and that the difference between U.S. prices and the lower prices in China and the Mid-East is subsidies. The panelists further agreed that the present mess has been caused mainly by excess speculation resulting from de-regulation of the oil futures market, and that immediate first aid relief could be achieved by restoring the 1936 regulations, which worked well until 2000, when their “relaxation” began.
The issue was raised of whether speculators would merely go to another market. Here again the panelists agreed, stating that the only other market which might be used would be in the U.K., and that requiring that all contracts to be used in the U.S. must comply with U.S. regulations would prevent circumvention of those regulations.
My Conclusion: Public pressure should be brought on Congress immediately to restore our prior regulation of the oil market, and to require that any oil futures contract to be used in the U.S. must comply with U.S. regulations. Simple action is available that would deflate the speculative bubble in oil prices, which is not being taken. Meanwhile, the high oil, gasoline and diesel prices are causing unacceptable damage to U.S. industry and financial markets. The pundits are still telling us that nothing can be done to affect the price of oil in the near term, and that gasoline will go to $7.00 a gallon. They state with no sense of impending disaster, that Chrysler, and maybe all three American auto manufacturers, and some principal airlines, will probably disappear in bankruptcy. That is not acceptable.