In the wake of Lehman's demise, Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson will try to put out the word that it's no great trauma.
But it's a bluff and they know it. If they openly admitted that the Lehman collapse will paralyze Wall Street, torpedo the stock market and sink economy, they'd have to pony up $100 billion or more to support it. Instead, their agenda has been to push big banks to put up the money.
Either way, there's no denying that the Lehman debacle is a massive and immediate threat to U.S. and global markets. At the latest reckoning, Lehman had $691 billion in assets. That makes it bigger than Wachovia, twice as big as Washington Mutual, and over sixteen times larger than Schwab.
Lehman's debts - at $668.6 billion - are also enormous. Even if you added together all the debts of TD Ameritrade, E-Trade and Schwab, you'd still have only $108.5 billion, or less than one-sixth the total debts which Lehman reports.
In fact, among brokers, there are only two other U.S. firms that beat Lehman in the debt category: Morgan Stanley, with $1 trillion, and Merrill Lynch, with $988 billion.
Can you imagine anyone in his right mind making the argument that a Merrill Lynch downfall would be "no great trauma to investors and financial markets"? Of course not.
The reality: The collapse of America's third-largest brokerage operation is very serious business with equally serious consequences. The primary concern ...
Defaults on Derivatives
We've lost count of how many times the authorities have virtually sworn on a stack of Bibles that "our financial system is fundamentally sound."
But no one could possibly lose count of their recent desperate efforts to prevent the system's collapse - actions which directly belie their words:
One - the coordinated efforts by central banks to flood the global economy with liquidity in the summer of 2007.
Two - the hasty bailout of Bear Stearns in March of this year.
Three - the giant Fannie and Freddie rescue announced just eight days ago.
Each time they intervene, they say "we must not reward CEOs who deceive the public and walk off with multibillion dollar bonus checks." And each time they say it's the "last time we'll make an exception to that rule."
But then they go ahead and do it anyhow, not only breaking their own word ... but also trashing the long tradition of restraint established by their predecessors since the Great Depression.
Why? Because they had neither the courage nor the audacity to confront Wall Street's ultimate nightmare: A collapse in the giant mountain of derivatives.
Derivatives are essentially bets on interest rates, foreign currencies, stocks or specific events like the bankruptcy of a particular company. The interest rate-related bets are by far the biggest. But the bets on bankruptcies - called credit default swaps - are the fastest growing and the most volatile.
These derivatives were originally designed to help hedge investments reduce risk - like insurance policies. But in practice, they've been increasingly used to leverage investments, increasing the risks of participants.