Randi Rhodes Message Board > Obama Edges Ahead In The National Polls

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Kane

Sep 17 2008, 01:30 PM

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmem...n_the_natio.php

QUOTE

Barack Obama has now edged into a narrow lead in most of the national polls released today, suggesting John McCain's bounce may be subsiding after he had been leading over the last week and a half.

First, here's our daily roundup of the four major national tracking polls:

• Gallup: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error. McCain had a one-point lead yesterday, and this is the first time in a week and a half that Obama has been ahead.

• Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 45%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, not significantly changed from yesterday's 46%-42% margin for Obama.

• Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama has a narrow lead of 46.9% to McCain's 45.6%. The two were essentially tied yesterday, and two days ago McCain had a roughly one-point lead.

On top of that, Obama has grabbed a 47%-45% lead in the new Zogby poll of likely voters, with a ±3.1% margin of error. In Zogby's last poll from a month ago -- which was something of an outlier at the time, mind you -- McCain had a 46%-41% lead.

That didn't take long.

TapDuncan

Sep 17 2008, 01:32 PM

Yeah but I don't really count on the polls. It is good though if one does.

Kane

Sep 17 2008, 01:40 PM

QUOTE (TapDuncan @ Sep 17 2008, 08:13 AM)

Yeah but I don't really count on the polls. It is good though if one does.

I too don't count on the polls, but I know some that do in a kinda-sorta way. And I know that some become concerned when polls aren't favorable, so why not offer a good poll if it will make someone's day. You can't rely entirely on polls, but a little candy never hurt anyone.

egghead

Sep 17 2008, 02:16 PM

I believe the fundamentals of our polling systems are strong.

Christine

Sep 17 2008, 02:18 PM

QUOTE (egghead @ Sep 17 2008, 12:57 PM)

I believe the fundamentals of our polling systems are strong.

I believe the system of polling fundamentalists is strong and wrong....and I can say nuclear too!

TapDuncan

Sep 17 2008, 02:22 PM

Kane---I used to think they were legit, until they started to tell us that shrub was killing Kerry, and then I knew, nope, more MS BS. Now they are doing it again, I think they sit there laughing their asses off at how many people jump around when they see the polls. If we stopped polling what else would the MSM have to use? They obviously don't do man on the street interviews anymore. Also, who the fuck are they talking to anyway? Who's home during the day time? Besides me, but hey it's a ranch. I never leave. And I still haven't gotten a call.

egghead

Sep 17 2008, 02:46 PM

QUOTE (Christine @ Sep 17 2008, 01:59 PM)

I believe the system of polling fundamentalists is strong and wrong....and I can say nuclear too!

SherriChardonnay

Sep 17 2008, 02:52 PM

QUOTE (egghead @ Sep 17 2008, 01:57 PM)

I believe the fundamentals of our polling systems are strong.

I just spit out my pop! lmao!

JRunRun

Sep 17 2008, 02:53 PM

Ooops... I didn't see this thread when I was making mine... Anyways. Polls are starting to head in the right direction.

L-Rey-LA

Sep 17 2008, 04:04 PM

QUOTE (egghead @ Sep 17 2008, 11:57 AM)

I believe the fundamentals of our polling systems are strong.

Yeah, they got too much blowback!

IVEATCH

Sep 17 2008, 04:11 PM

QUOTE (JRunRun @ Sep 17 2008, 03:34 PM)

Ooops... I didn't see this thread when I was making mine... Anyways. Polls are starting to head in the right direction.

You mean "Left" direction.

leftysergeant

Sep 17 2008, 04:19 PM

QUOTE (IVEATCH @ Sep 17 2008, 01:52 PM)

You mean "Left" direction.

Right as in correct. Falacy of language.

jammonius

Sep 17 2008, 04:40 PM

One can assume that between now and 11/4, an all out effort will be made in order to be able to say that the economy was in crisis, but, at some point in, say, late October, there's all of a sudden some sort of dramatic turnaround or, at a minimum, a way for msm to say there's been a dramatic turnaround.

My hunch is that the cat is out of that bag and that the economy has lost it and that there are no magic turnarounds available in reality, not even in synthetic, hyped, and/or manufactured msm reality.

However, I'd watch for msm's attempt to portray events in magic turnaround terms.

So long as the economic crisis persists, msm will not be able to trivialize the campaign process. Reality is Obama's strong suit.

SherriChardonnay

Sep 17 2008, 05:22 PM

for you poll watchers, Obama and McSame are tied in Florida at 48%

jammonius

Sep 17 2008, 05:53 PM

QUOTE (SherriChardonnay @ Sep 17 2008, 06:03 PM)

for you poll watchers, Obama and McSame are tied in Florida at 48%

That means Obama is 10 points down in the vote count.

RandiLover

Sep 17 2008, 05:58 PM

QUOTE (IVEATCH @ Sep 17 2008, 01:52 PM)

You mean "Left" direction.

The correct direction.

RandiLover

Sep 17 2008, 05:59 PM

The only polls I wish to watch have women on them.

IVEATCH

Sep 17 2008, 06:04 PM

QUOTE (leftysergeant @ Sep 17 2008, 04:00 PM)

Right as in correct. Falacy of language.

You mean you are not .... gasp ...... left handed ............... ?

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